It is clear that
the real proof of the value of this method cannot be offered. This is
just the reason why we selected this illustration as an example of the
particular difficulty. Wrong decisions, that is, cases in which the
man on the bridge waits too long before he makes his decision and thus
causes a collision of ships by his delay, or in which he rushes
blindly to a decision which he himself would have condemned after
quiet deliberation, are rare. It would be impossible to group such
men together for the purpose of the experiment and to compare their
results with those of model captains, the more as experience has shown
that an officer may have a stainless record for many years and yet may
finally make a wrong decision which shows his faulty disposition. The
test of the method must therefore be a somewhat indirect one. My aim
was to compare the results of the experiments with the experiences of
the various individuals which they themselves reported concerning
their decisions in unexpected complicated situations, and moreover
with the judgments of their friends whom I asked to describe what they
would expect from the subjects under such conditions. The personal
differences in these respects are extremely great, and are also
evident in the midst of small groups of persons who may have great
similarity in their education and training and in many other aspects
of their lives.
Among the most advanced students of my research laboratory, for
instance, all of whom have rather similar schooling and practically
the same training in experimental work, the product of mistakes and
seconds varied between 348 and 13,335.
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